Every FEH player is tempted by the high 8% rate of drawing the powerful heroes in the banner. The question is only: when to stop.
But is it really much better than the old hero fest banners? Especially for new players who has 7 days to draw from the hero fest starter banner, featuring Ike, Ninian, Yulia, and Genny. Let’s first see who are in the 11.27 banner.
Red: Ike, Ayra, Celica Green: Hector, Spring Camilla, Deirdre Blue: The new Ice Queen, Bridal Caeda, Spring Xander, Colorless: Brave Lyn, Bridal Cordelia, Genny.
I emphasized those that may be used in Arena matching team. The only two heroes not super useful are Spring Xander and Bridal Caeda. The two are still good, but others are great and can be in your final 28 Arena Assault teams.
Now let’s check the 5* rate. Even though the up rate is 8%, the total 5* rate is not changed from previous hero fest (5%+3%). IS dropped the normal 5% to 0. The problem is if the pity rate calculation is adjusted too. In past banners, for every 5 none 5*, you gain 0.25%+0.25% pity rate, total 0.5%. Now if the normal pool is kept at 0%, could it mean the up rate only increase by 0.25%? We don’t know until the banner is here. But even if they increase by 0.5% at a time, it’s still not always good.
Say if you want only one hero from a colour: I want the ice queen in blue only. The rate of getting her is only 8%/3 = 2.7%, less than the normal 3% pool. When you want 2 or more heroes from the same colour, go for it. But in most cases you will draw one before another. Do you stop here when the rate of what you want dropped to 2.7% for that colour?
Different strategies will be applied to different goals. I will split the type of users into these categories:
- Collectors who want to get one of each kind over the full life of the game. Or the more kinds the better.
- PvPers who would use only high plus heroes.
- Other F2P who just want some strong heroes to clean story, fight tempest trial or win grand hero battles.
- Fan of a certain char, certain series.
For new collectors, if you have enough orbs, you should try to get all of them in this banner. You may get duplicates in the end, but because they are all powerful, it will be better than to wait for them to up again and draw from 3%+3% pools. After all, it’s hard to tell when they will be up again next time. Better to get them early when you are still playing the game.
If you don’t have enough orbs, the strategy would be to draw all 5 stones until you obtain the limited hero in that colour. Then you focus on the rest of the colours only. Once you obtain all 4 limited heroes, change to draw from those with more than 2 in one colour. And finally the better hero colour. In general, for this banner green > red > white > blue.
PvP only cares about those who can be in your final team. They should focus on the matching team members first, meaning those worth +10. In this banner, Hector is the must have, for his A skill (distant counter). Ike, Ayra and Ice queue are great too. The rest of the bold heroes won’t have a position in the top team, but they can be in the rest of your 7 teams.
So set you target: plan on what final matching team you want to use. And know what you need. e.g. if you want to run an armored team with all 3* 4* ones, you may only need 5 Hectors in total. Also list other heroes you want and draw all the colours in your list.
Things to note. If you want to +10 only one hero in a colour, you may want to wait for it to be up alone. You saw how I draw my Amelia when she’s one of the 3 ups, and the only green colour. My 5% rate was like 20%, so 8% is not guaranteed to be better. For my Amelia account, I definitely want to draw Hector this time. Not to +10 him (impossible to +10 on two real 5* for F2P), but get the distant counter for my other members. I need 4 so I will want 5 Hectors. Hector has been up 2 times recently and if I miss this I may need to wait for a long long time. Plus the other 2 in green are great also. Green is the best colour for me this time.
Even though red is a great colour this time too, think twice before you want to +10 within this banner. Probability theory said you need 20% more orbs compared with other single +3% banner to +10. You will get side products. But between Ike and Ayra you will want only one in your final team. Celica may not have a position there given that Reinhardt is everywhere in Arena. Deirdre on the other hand can check Reinhardt.
The colourless one is a hard question. On one hand you have the strongest hero in the game that +10 will be useful in all situations. On the other hand we have the colourless hell. And then because of the staff enhancement announcement, the hell may become heaven. Who knows. I have a +atk B-Lyn in main account and I know how good she is. However I will stick with my own rules and not draw colourless before I get enough Hectors. My Amelia account doesn’t plan to have Lyn in the final team anyway.
My first advice: don’t draw blue. The only great one in blue is the new ice queen, who will be given for free just like Brave Lyn anyway. Whales will be interested in max her, but what’s the point for F2P.
Then, pick the one you want most and focus on that colour first. If you are more like a collector like I am, maybe you want to draw green still to get spring Camilla. Without her it’s hard to build a flying team. But flying team is only for fun these days, due to the Brave Lyn threat.
As a F2P, be cautious to not let the banner temp you to pay. The banner looks good, but can you live without it? Absolutely. Even the limited heroes come back again. With patient, you will still get them in future, or get a stronger one. Let me go through them one by one with you to tell you what you want to focus one.
The 4 limited heroes: they should be your first priority if there’s one you really want. I think only the spring Camilla is worth it. Even her is optional as you’d hardly need a flying team. You want a flying team to earn the monthly orb, but that’s only one per month, and you can do it without her. Halloween Nowi is a better choice than her if you have to choose between the two. I don’t mind getting S-Camilla as a side product. But it’s OK to miss her. The other 3 are so so. You have Lyn already so you don’t need to spend money on another ranger. If you don’t have Brave Lyn yet? Well. go for colourless hell!
Next, the top tier close fighters. Ike, Ayra, Hector. Ice queen can be obtained for free so she’s out of the question. Ike has been up for many times. Both him and Hector can counter distant. Hector’s CD can be inherited. Ayra is a new strong hero, but you see Mia coming. Same base values, similar skills. There will be more like this in future. Ayra is not unique. They are all great to have, but in my opinion not worth the dollars as they won’t be in your final matching team. As a F2P, I don’t think you will have them +10 or near to be in the final team. If not for the match team, there are many replacements, except for Hector. I guess if you accumulated enough orbs, you will get a Hector. I guess it’s ok if you spend some money to clean up the pity rate in the end if you still expect a Hector. I’m more optimistic that I think I can get enough of him by playing the game for free. If I miss him this time, I can still try next time. Before I have enough Hectors, I will just use my horse emblem.
After the limited heroes and close fighters, there are the mages and healers. Celica, Deirdre, B-Lyn, Genny. For red mage you always have the choice of Tharja. Celica is totally optional. Would you pay your hard earned dollars on someone optional? If the answer is yes, you never were a F2P. Deirdre is good, really good if you don’t have Yulia already. The good news is she’s green, that you may get her already when trying to pull Hector. If you have enough Hectors but still don’t have Deirdre, you know you can wait for her own banner to increase the rate. Genny is in colourless hell. You should have a B-Lyn already as F2P. She was given for free. None of the rangers (except for B-Lyn) have a position in your match team so it’s OK if you only have one of each. And without pluses, most of them can be replaced. But of course B-Lyn and Genny have no replacement. However no one really care about staff users. You don’t need Genny’s skill as much as you want Hector’s.
It’s easy to conclude here. Just focus on your favorite. If you plan to +10, better wait until a standalone banner.
Here is my own wish list in order. I have B-Lyn, Ayra, Hector already in my main. B-Lyn, Ike in my sub.
- Hector, 5 of him.
- Spring Camilla
- Deirdre. I only have Cecilia as my green mage. I need more.
- Ike. I just like him.
- Bridal Cordelia. I like the drawing. For collecting purpose.
- Bridal Caeda
- Ice queen
- Spring Xander
Finally, best luck to everyone who plan to draw from the banner. I will spend all my orbs here, because I don’t think I would get 5 Hectors before I consume them all. I may do a rolling video but I found that draw 1-2 a time suits me more. If you draw all of them in one run, your draws will be averaged among themselves. Meaning you will see a closer to 8% rate. If you spread them out, extreme cases may happen that you maybe super lucky, or super unlucky. The extreme case is more fun for me.